A recent white-paper published on Scrum.org discusses the Evidence-Based Approach and introduces a new model called APOM (Agile Product Operating Model). The paper tries to show that in today’s world, decision-making based only on gut feeling or past experience is no longer enough. Organizations need to rely on real data and evidence.

APOM: https://www.scrum.org/resources/agile-product-operating-model-apom-evidence-based-approach

Fast and unpredictable changes have made traditional planning and management methods less effective. That’s why we need an approach that helps us adapt to changes more easily and make more precise, valuable decisions.

This article aims to simply explain what an evidence-based approach is, why it’s important, what APOM includes, what problems it addresses, and share some real-world examples. In the end, you can decide if this model fits your team or organization.

Uncertainty

One of the things that has always fascinated me in management and teamwork is the concept of Complexity. It’s often discussed in books and research. But recently, I’ve noticed a stronger focus on the word Uncertainty in modern materials, including this whitepaper.

Uncertainty

Today’s world is full of fast and unpredictable changes. A new technology might appear, customer behavior might suddenly change, or market regulations might shift. No plan can perfectly predict all these events in advance.

In my opinion, organizations that learn to embrace uncertainty and see it as an opportunity rather than a threat have a higher chance of success. Instead of resisting change, moving with it helps teams learn faster, make quicker decisions, and adapt to new market needs.

Three main reasons for traditional organizations’ failure (Three buckets)
The whitepaper explains why many traditional organizations fail or don’t achieve the desired results even when they try to adopt agile or modern methods. These failures can be summarized in what it calls “three buckets.”

1. Disconnect between business and technology In many organizations, business and technology functions are separated. Technology is often viewed as a support unit, only there to execute business orders. This disconnect leads to slow decision-making, confusion, and a lack of focus on solving customer problems.

2. Bureaucracy & hierarchy Many traditional organizations focus on control, standardization, and internal efficiency. These heavy structures block fast decision-making. When the market or customer needs change, these organizations react too slowly and fall behind.

3. Fear of failure and lack of focus on value creation In large organizations, failure is often seen as more dangerous than not delivering real value to customers. As a result, decisions are overly cautious, risks are minimized, and the main focus is avoiding mistakes rather than creating value or innovating.

These three reasons explain why even organizations that adopt modern methods sometimes fail to achieve real results and still face the same old problems.

Project vs Product

One key point in the whitepaper is the comparison between a project mindset and a product mindset. In the traditional model, the focus is on projects. Projects usually have a defined start and end date, a fixed budget and scope, and success is measured by time, cost, and scope.

Projects focus on delivering outputs, not on the value or outcome that eventually reaches the customer. In contrast, products are ongoing and focus on outcomes and real value for the customer. Product teams aim for continuous development and improvement instead of simply completing tasks.

Products have long lifecycles, stable teams, and learn continuously from feedback. The more innovative the product, the higher the uncertainty — and the product model helps teams navigate these changes more effectively.

What is a Product?

In the 2020 Scrum Guide, the definition of a product was made clear for the first time. A product is a vehicle for delivering value. It has clear boundaries, known stakeholders, and specific users or customers. It can be a service, a physical item, or even something abstract.

This approach encourages teams to focus on the overall experience and value for the user instead of just technical parts or internal systems. Even internal services (Shared Services) can be treated as products if they have a clear value and boundaries.

This mindset creates focus, accountability, and more motivation for continuous improvement and innovation within teams.

Evidence-Based Approach

The Evidence-Based Approach means making decisions based on data and real evidence, not just guesses or old habits. This approach helps teams understand why they are doing something and how to determine whether it is successful.

The main focus is on the outcome and the value provided to the customer, not just on delivering outputs. Using this approach leads to greater transparency, continuous learning, and better adaptability to market changes.

Evidence-Based Management (EBM)

Evidence-Based Management (EBM) is a key framework that helps organizations set measurable goals and continuously track progress.

Evidence-Based Management (EBM)

EBM consists of four key areas:

  • Current Value: What value are we delivering to customers right now?
  • Unrealized Value: What potential value have we not yet captured?
  • Time to Market: How quickly can we deliver new value?
  • Ability to Innovate: How well can we improve or develop new ideas?

These areas encourage organizations to focus on real value and outcomes instead of just output volume. Decisions become more transparent, and everyone knows why something is being done and what outcome is expected (not just output).

SpaceX vs Boeing example

One interesting example in the whitepaper is the comparison between SpaceX and Boeing. In 2014, NASA awarded contracts for human spaceflight to both companies. Many people initially thought Boeing would perform better because of its long history and experience.

But the result was the opposite. SpaceX, with less funding, was faster and more successful, while Boeing, despite more funding, faced problems and failed to deliver on time.

According to Lori Garver, former NASA Deputy Administrator:

The main difference between the two companies was in their culture, design philosophy, and decision-making structure. This allowed SpaceX to excel in a fixed-price contract environment, while Boeing struggled despite higher funding.

This example shows how having a transparent culture, fast decision-making, and focusing on outcomes can make a huge difference.

Agile Product Operating Model (APOM)

APOM is a comprehensive framework for product management that focuses on continuous value creation and learning. It helps organizations shift from temporary project-based thinking to a product mindset focused on outcomes.

Agile Product Operating Model (APOM)

Strategy
Strategy defines why a product exists and what value it should create. This clarity keeps teams aligned and helps guide decisions. The four main perspectives in strategy are value, business, technology, and operations.

People
People are the heart of APOM. Teams should be small, independent, and cross-functional. Servant leadership, an open culture, continuous skills development, and incentives aligned with learning and real value creation are key parts of this section.

Structure
Structure includes rules, processes, systems, and contracts. It should be lightweight, flexible, and transparent so teams can make quick decisions and adapt to change. Processes should support learning, collaboration, and rapid delivery.

Value Cycle
The value cycle covers discovering needs (Discovery), building and delivering (Delivery), and continuously supporting and improving the product (Operations). This cycle ensures teams always focus on delivering real value to customers and the market.

Product-Based Investment
One of the most important changes proposed in APOM is the shift to product-based investment. In traditional approaches, budgets are often assigned to short-term projects or tasks focused on output, even if they don’t create real value for the customer.

In APOM, budgets are assigned directly to the product. This allows teams to continuously improve, learn, and respond to actual market needs without worrying about project constraints. This leads to more focused decisions, smarter investments, and greater value for both customers and the organization.

Agile Product Portfolio Management
For large-scale success, organizations also need to manage their entire product portfolio in an agile way. In APOM, budgeting and strategic decisions are made based on each product’s value, real market feedback, and overall organizational goals, not just work volume or delivery speed.

This approach enables more transparent, faster, and more flexible investments. It also allows organizations to quickly decide where to reduce or stop investments and where to focus more.

Change Management and Continuous Learning

In APOM, change and learning are natural and continuous parts of team and organizational work. Change isn’t seen as a separate project or temporary activity but as an ongoing process for improvement, adapting to new needs, and staying aligned with the market.

At the team level, feedback, retrospectives, and method updates are key activities. At the organizational level, structures and strategies are regularly updated based on real data and evidence.

This strengthens the learning culture, improves decision-making, and ensures the organization is always ready to handle change.

Conclusion

APOM and the Evidence-Based Approach show that focusing only on delivering work is not enough for success today. Organizations must prioritize outcomes and the value created for customers.

With this model, organizations learn to see change as an opportunity for growth rather than a threat. The result is better products, happier customers, and stronger, more sustainable organizations.